Is the sharp decline in Antarctic sea ice cover in spring 2016, followed by exceptionally low ice cover since, including the summer of 2025, signaling a regime shift in the future? Until the mid-2010s, Antarctic sea ice has stood out from its Arctic counterpart due to its apparent resistance to the effects of climate change. While the latter, an emblematic symbol of the vulnerability of polar regions to global warming took center stage in the scientific debate, satellite observations available since 1978 were demonstrating a relative stability of Antarctic sea ice. Until the early 2000s there was a persistent multi-decadal trend toward an increase in the average annual sea ice extent, even though this increase remained small and statistically insignificant. The trend then accelerated, becoming significant in spring and fall, then for all months until the beginning of 2012 when a period of particularly strong and persistent anomalies began, culminating in the fall of 2015.
Authors: Marie-Noëlle HOUSSAIS for POLAR WATCH.
This article is available on the Polar Watch website.
The French version is available here.
