Neither an ‘EU-plus’ nor a ‘NATO-minus’ could fill all the gaps that would be left in European security if the US radically reduced its commitment to NATO. Europeans need a new forum to provide substitute defence guarantees and defence capabilities. When NATO leaders meet for their summit in The Hague on June 24th-25th, they will have plenty to worry about: the war in Ukraine, Russian hybrid attacks, and where to find resources for higher defence spending. For most of them, however, the biggest worry will be the intentions of US President Donald Trump. When Trump attended the July 2018 NATO summit in Brussels, he had to be talked out of announcing that the US was leaving the alliance, according to his then national security adviser, John Bolton. What should Europeans do if he walks away from NATO this time?
Author: Ian Bond, Deputy Director, Centre for European Reform.
This article is available on the Centre for European Reform.
